題庫原題11：The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.

“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito， the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro， who served as mayor for four years before Montoya， the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly， the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”

地方性報紙的編者按：

在Montoya當San Perdito市長的頭4年里，人口下降而失業(yè)率上升。每當一個新企業(yè)開業(yè)，就有兩個舊的關門。而在Montoya之前Uarro當市長的4年里，失業(yè)率下降人口增長。很明顯，San Perdito的居民重新選舉Varro而非Montoya會得到更好的服務。

提供觀點：

1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷時期 is part of a picture of 。.. mayor

2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population 。

3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass

4. cast one’s vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal

1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country， 不能說兩個倒閉一個開就是壞事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企業(yè)，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企業(yè)。也是好事。

2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因為在P在任期間，全國的經(jīng)濟不景氣，造成了事業(yè)更增加。而不是兩個市長的不同。假定過去和現(xiàn)在一樣，也是個錯誤！recession depression downturn低迷時期