Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will launch another round of bond buying this week are fueling speculation that China also may ease policy soon to shore up its cooling economy.

　　But analysts say investors who bet on quick action from the People's Bank of China could be disappointed, with only an outside chance that it would follow the Fed's lead with more monetary easing of its own any time soon.

　　The best markets could hope for would be a further cut in banks' reserve requirement (RRR), but the odds against such an imminent move or even an outright interest rate cut are high as a recent flare-up in property and consumer inflation overshadows the urgency of policy easing.

　　Moreover, unlike the 2008/09 global crisis, China's labor market is still holding up well in part due to wrenching economic and demographic shifts.

　　Markets simply may have underestimated Beijing's tolerance of lower economic growth this year, as long as the slowdown is not too abrupt and does not spark social unrest ahead of a once-in-a-generation leadership change expected next month.

　　The Chinese economy will slow further in the third quarter but regain some momentum late in the year as the impact of earlier policy easing fully kicks in, according to the latest Reuters poll of economists released on Wednesday.

　　SURPRISE?

　　Predicting the timing of China's monetary policy moves can be a daunting task given the central bank does not hold regular policy meetings as its counterparts in the West, and it has a track record of surprising the market.

　　One, albeit slim possibility is that the China may opt to cut banks' reserve requirements or rates as part of a globally coordinated policy action to shore up the world economy, especially if the Federal Reserve launches a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3 after a two-day meeting ending on Thursday to spur the U.S. recovery.

　　China, the euro zone and Britain loosened monetary policy within less than an hour of each other in early July, signaling a growing level of alarm about the world economy. China's move was a surprise, though suggestions of any coordinated action were played down.

　　Unlike its counterparts in the West, the central bank still has plenty of room to cut borrowing costs. The benchmark one-year bank lending rate is at 6 percent while one-year deposit rate is at 3 percent, while the RRR level remains at 20 percent -- among the highest in the world.

　　Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, still expects one or two cuts in RRR and another interest rates cut by year-end.

　　NO URGENCY

　　As long as the labor market holds up, economists say Beijing will not be overly concerned about a growth slowdown.

　　China launched a massive stimulus plan four years ago after at least 20 million Chinese lost their jobs in a matter of months as world trade ground to a halt.

　　But the labor market has proved to be more resilient this time round, with economists pointing to an expanding service sector, which is diversifying growth away from the vulnerable export sector and creating plenty of new jobs.

　　While expectations of central bank moves have been dialed back, investors' focus has shifted to prospects for more fiscal stimulus measures, which already are gaining pace.

　　Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it had approved over $150 billion worth of infrastructure projects, but analysts remain skeptical about any quick impact on economic growth as the projects still need time to get funding and start construction.

　　Premier Wen Jiabao said on Tuesday that Beijing was in fiscal surplus of about 1 trillion yuan ($157.9 billion) in the year to date and if needed the government could utilize a 100 billion yuan fiscal stability fund to boost growth.

　　Wen also said the economy remains on track to meet the government's annual 7.5 percent growth target.

　　China still created 8.1 million new jobs during the first seven months of 2012, up 5 percent from a year earlier, he added. The tally was 90 percent of the annual target of 9 million set by the government at the beginning of the year.

　　"They don't really have any urgency (in policy easing) at this point. They keep the power dry and they will respond if things get worse," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING in Singapore.

　　"The economy is not doing great, but it's not doing that badly."

　　Still, even if activity rebounds modestly in the fourth quarter, it would drag full-year economic growth to below 8 percent, a level never seen since 1999.

　　INFLATION IN FOCUS

　　The central bank needs to tread carefully amid signs that its earlier policy easing has fanned property price rises that have triggered public anxiety.

　　That's probably why the PBOC has so far defied expectations for more aggressive moves since its last interest rate cut in July. Instead, it is opting to use reverse repos to inject short-term money into the banking system.

　　Housing prices, rebounded on a monthly basis for the second straight months in July, following eight consecutive months of declines, while annual inflation accelerated to 2 percent in August from a 30-month low of 1.8 percent in July.

　　"The key dilemma for policymakers is that inflation looks like it will pick up earlier than expected, while a growth recovery coming later than expected," said Yiping Huang, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.

　　"I think the central bank will probably do a little bit more (on easing), depending on how the economy is doing. Realistically, the economy is going to rebound but certainly not going to rebound significantly."

　　The PBOC may keep policy settings unchanged until the fourth quarter, when growth may stabilize or even recover due to the lagging impact of policy stimulus, according to government economist familiar with the policy-making process.

　　"We don't expect any major changes in macro-economic policy in the run up to the 18th Party Congress and the fundamental tone for monetary policy remains prudent," Wang Jun, senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a Beijing-based think-tank, told Reuters.

　　"Policymakers have drawn a lesson from the past and don't want to stimulate economic growth aggressively," he said, referring to concerns that too much stimulus could re-ignite inflationary pressures.

　　The 18th Communist Party Congress, at which China's next top leaders are likely to be unveiled, is set for October.

　　Under the banner of policy 'fine-tuning", the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July and lowered banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) three times since late 2011, freeing an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan for boosting loans.

　　"The chances of policy easing are slim in the near term, but we cannot rule out a cut in RRR or interest rates," said You Hongye, an economist at China Essence Securities in Beijing.

　　相關(guān)中文資料

　　市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(FED,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))本周將推出新一輪的購(gòu)債計(jì)劃.這令外界揣測(cè)中國(guó)或亦將很快放松政策來(lái)支撐其不斷放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì).

　　但分析師稱(chēng),認(rèn)為中國(guó)人民銀行將很快行動(dòng)的投資者可能要失望了,中國(guó)只有極小的可能性會(huì)追隨美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)很快推出自身的寬松措施.

　　市場(chǎng)能夠期待出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果也就是進(jìn)一步下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率(RRR),但立即采取該行動(dòng)或者甚至直接下調(diào)利率的可能性很低,因近期房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和通脹回升蓋過(guò)放寬政策的緊迫性.

　　此外,與2008/09年的全球性危機(jī)不同,中國(guó)的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)仍保持平穩(wěn),這部分是由於經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口結(jié)構(gòu)的改變.

　　市場(chǎng)可能是低估了中國(guó)政府今年對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)放慢的容忍度.只要經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩不是過(guò)於劇烈,而且不會(huì)在18大會(huì)議之前引發(fā)社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩,中國(guó)政府可以容忍.

　　據(jù)周三發(fā)布的最新路透調(diào)查顯示,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)在第三季度將進(jìn)一步放慢,但隨著稍早寬松政策的效果開(kāi)始完全顯現(xiàn),經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在年底重獲部分動(dòng)能.

　　不過(guò),即使第四季經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)溫和反彈,全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍會(huì)跌落至8%以下,可能創(chuàng)下1999年來(lái)最低增速.

　　通脹仍是焦點(diǎn)

　　人行需要極其小心,因?yàn)橛雄E象顯示稍早的政策寬松已經(jīng)推動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲,并且引發(fā)公眾的擔(dān)憂.

　　這可能也是為什麼人行繼上次7月降息以來(lái),遲遲不肯采取更有力行動(dòng)的原因.相反,人行選擇通過(guò)逆回購(gòu)向金融系統(tǒng)注入短期流動(dòng)性.

　　樓市價(jià)格在八個(gè)月連降之後,7月連續(xù)第二個(gè)月環(huán)比上漲,8月年通脹率也由7月的30個(gè)月低點(diǎn)1.8%上升至2%.

　　"決策者面臨的主要難題是,通脹反彈似乎比預(yù)期來(lái)得要早,而增長(zhǎng)復(fù)蘇又比預(yù)期來(lái)得晚,"巴克萊資本駐香港亞洲新興市場(chǎng)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家黃一平表示.

　　"我認(rèn)為央行可能將視經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,(在放寬政策方面)再稍微采取一些行動(dòng).實(shí)際上,經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈,但肯定幅度不會(huì)很大."

　　熟悉決策過(guò)程的政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示,中國(guó)人民銀行可能會(huì)維持政策不變直至第四季,屆時(shí)由於刺激政策的延遲效應(yīng),經(jīng)濟(jì)增速可能企穩(wěn),或者甚至反彈.

　　"我們預(yù)計(jì),18大召開(kāi)前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策將不會(huì)發(fā)生重大變化,而且貨幣政策的基調(diào)仍將為審慎,"中國(guó)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交流中心(CCIEE)的資深經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王軍對(duì)路透表示.

　　他說(shuō),"政策制定者們已從過(guò)去汲取教訓(xùn),不希望強(qiáng)烈刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)."暗指*擔(dān)心過(guò)度刺激可能會(huì)重燃通脹壓力.

　　中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨18大會(huì)議料將在10月舉行,屆時(shí)中國(guó)新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層可能亮相.

　　在政策"微調(diào)"的名義下,中國(guó)人民銀行於6月和7月兩度下調(diào)利率.而且自2011年末以來(lái)三次調(diào)降銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率,釋放貨幣約1.2萬(wàn)億(兆)元人民幣.

　　"短期內(nèi)放松政策的機(jī)率很小,但我們無(wú)法排除調(diào)降準(zhǔn)備金率或基準(zhǔn)利率的可能性,"中國(guó)安信證券的分析師尤宏業(yè)表示.

　　意外行動(dòng)?

　　預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)何時(shí)調(diào)整貨幣政策,可謂一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù),因中國(guó)央行不像西方國(guó)家央行那樣定期召開(kāi)政策會(huì)議,而且過(guò)去的行動(dòng)曾屢次讓市場(chǎng)大感意外.

　　一種很小的可能性,就是中國(guó)或選擇下調(diào)銀行存款儲(chǔ)備金率或利率,以此作為全球政策協(xié)作支撐世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的部分努力,特別是若美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四結(jié)束兩日會(huì)議時(shí)祭出第三輪量化寬松(QE3)來(lái)助推美國(guó)復(fù)蘇.

　　7月初,中國(guó)、歐元區(qū)和英國(guó)的央行短短數(shù)小時(shí)內(nèi)相繼放松貨幣政策,暗示其對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的警戒級(jí)別提高.中國(guó)的行動(dòng)令人意外,但聯(lián)合行動(dòng)的意味被淡化.

　　和西方央行不同,中國(guó)央行仍擁有下調(diào)借款成本的充裕空間.中國(guó)一年期存貸款利率分別為3%和6%,存款準(zhǔn)備金率維持在20%--為全球者之一.

　　中國(guó)國(guó)際金融有限公司(CICC)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家彭文生仍預(yù)計(jì),年底前降準(zhǔn)一到兩次,并再降息一次.

　　不著急

　　分析師表示,只要就業(yè)市場(chǎng)保持穩(wěn)定,北京*就不會(huì)太擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)放緩.

　　四年前全球貿(mào)易接近停滯,數(shù)月內(nèi)近2,000萬(wàn)中國(guó)人失業(yè),隨後中國(guó)推出大規(guī)模刺激計(jì)劃.

　　但這次就業(yè)市場(chǎng)更具韌性.分析師指出,服務(wù)業(yè)擴(kuò)張,降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)對(duì)脆弱的出口行業(yè)的依賴(lài),并創(chuàng)造了大量就業(yè).

　　雖然對(duì)人行采取行動(dòng)的預(yù)期降溫,但投資者轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注中國(guó)可能出臺(tái)更多財(cái)政刺激措施.政府現(xiàn)已加緊準(zhǔn)備財(cái)政刺激手段.

　　發(fā)改委上周宣布,已批準(zhǔn)基建項(xiàng)目的規(guī)模超過(guò)1,500億美元.但分析師仍懷疑這不會(huì)給經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)任何立竿見(jiàn)影的效果,因?yàn)檫@些項(xiàng)目仍需要時(shí)間來(lái)籌集資金和開(kāi)始建設(shè).

　　國(guó)務(wù)院總理溫家寶周二表示,政府到7月底收支相抵還有1萬(wàn)億元余額,歷年結(jié)余的還有1千多億元穩(wěn)定調(diào)節(jié)基金.

　　溫家寶還表示,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍然保持在年初預(yù)定的7.5%目標(biāo)區(qū)間之內(nèi).

　　他還表示,今年前七個(gè)月新創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位810萬(wàn)個(gè),較上年同期增加5%.這個(gè)數(shù)字是政府年初所設(shè)900萬(wàn)目標(biāo)的90%.

　　"當(dāng)前他們真的不著急(放寬政策).他們時(shí)刻做好準(zhǔn)備,如果情況惡化,他們會(huì)做出響應(yīng),"荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)亞洲研究主管Tim Condon說(shuō).

　　"經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)不是太好,但也沒(méi)有那麼差."