一、換代言人(同上月27) 　　本月原始 　　公司市場(chǎng)總監(jiān)說(shuō)，過(guò)去的campaign很成功increase in sales，在開(kāi)始4年成功用體育明星代言，吸引了中老年消費(fèi)者，而后2年sales remained stable。 為了another increase in sales, 公司應(yīng)該hire 某個(gè)樂(lè)團(tuán)代言，因?yàn)樗麄兪钱?dāng)下music sensation，來(lái)吸引untapped youth market。這樣公司就能又increase in sales了。 　　考古 　　V1.引言：director 寫(xiě)給 CEO的(賣(mài) grooming product的公司) 　　內(nèi)容：公司四年前請(qǐng)了知名運(yùn)動(dòng)員作為代言人，銷(xiāo)量上升了，but in the last two years 銷(xiāo)量保持不變，如果想要在一次是銷(xiāo)量提升，要再請(qǐng)個(gè)代言人。此外，這次要請(qǐng)DC，他是當(dāng)下年輕人歡迎的歌星，我們要將目標(biāo)人群有中年消費(fèi)者轉(zhuǎn)向年輕人。 　　V2.Company's cologne has experienced significant sales increase of 30% annually in the first four years of its launch. The company uses advertising campaign with professional sports stars and research found that most customers are middle-aged men. Cologne sale slowed down in recent years and CEO believes that they need to get younger people to use the cologne and he will hire Justin Bieber as their new spokesperson to achieve this. 　　參考思路 　　1.錯(cuò)誤因果關(guān)系：代言人和銷(xiāo)量上升。也許香水本身的定位就是中年男性，比如味道或者價(jià)位，換代言人并不會(huì)產(chǎn)生多少改變。銷(xiāo)量不變可能是其他很多原因造成的，比如economic recession等等。 　　2.時(shí)地全等：過(guò)去用代言人這招管用，不代表將來(lái)還是有用， 也許其他很多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者都用這招了。last two years銷(xiāo)量不變不代表以后銷(xiāo)量也不變。 　　3.無(wú)關(guān)假設(shè)：歌星一定能吸引年輕人。沒(méi)有證據(jù)支持這種說(shuō)法，年輕的明星并不代表就能吸引到年輕男人，比如可能一般男生關(guān)注明星比較少，或者在男生中其實(shí)運(yùn)動(dòng)員更受歡迎，換了還不如不換。 　　二、Oak City 　　本月原始 　　V1.一個(gè)editorial，講Oak城(什么，橡樹(shù)城?)市中心建了shopping mall以后出現(xiàn)各種癥狀，1商鋪倒閉2停車(chē)位不夠3抓到的罪犯變多。所以咱們E城不應(yīng)該建這種。 　　V2.好像是說(shuō)在oak城建shopping mall后各種弊端，因此在elm城考慮不要建。 　　考古原題!!(OG13第52個(gè)) 　　The following editorial appeared in the Elm City paper: 　　"The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage, and arrests for crime and vagrancy have increased in the nearby Oak City Park. Elm City should pay attention to the example of the Oak City mall and deny the application to build a shopping mall in Elm City." 　　Discuss how well reasoned .... etc. 　　Elm城的報(bào)紙上的社論： 　　去年在橡樹(shù)城市中心修建購(gòu)物中心是個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。由于中心開(kāi)業(yè)，大量的本地企業(yè)倒閉了。而且市中心受到嚴(yán)重缺乏停車(chē)位的困擾。在附近的橡樹(shù)城公園拘捕的罪犯和流浪漢也增加了。榆樹(shù)城應(yīng)該注意橡樹(shù)城購(gòu)物中心的例子并防止在榆樹(shù)城建立購(gòu)物中心。 　　參考思路 　　1.錯(cuò)誤因果關(guān)系：不一定是由于mall open導(dǎo)致其他商店關(guān)閉 　　2.時(shí)地全等：Elm City與Oak City不可完全等同 　　3.忽略了帶來(lái)的好處，例如create new occupations 　　參考例文 　　In this editorial the author rebukes Oak City for allowing the construction of a new downtown shopping mall. Citing a number of problems that have occurred since the building of the mail, the author concludes that the residents of Oak City have not benefited from the mail and that Oak City exercised poor judgment in allowing the mail to be built. Among the problems cited by the author are the closure of local businesses, lack of parking in the downtown area, and increased trash and litter in a city park near the mall. Moreover, the author argues that profits derived from sales are not benefiting Oak City because the owner of the mall lives in another city. The author's argument is problematic in several respects. 　　In the first place, the author assumes that addition of the new mall is the cause of the various problems cited. The only evidence offered to support this claim is that the construction of the mall occurred before these problems manifested themselves. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the claim in question. A chronological relationship is only one of the indicators of a causal relationship between two events. 　　In the second place, the author has focused only on negative effects the malt has had on the city. A more detailed analysis of the situation might reveal that the positive benefits for the city far outweigh the problems on which the author focuses. For example, new jobs might have been created for the residents of Oak City, and tax revenues might have been increased for the city. Lacking a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the mail on Oak City, it is presumptuous on the part of the author to conclude that Oak City's decision to allow the mall to be built was incorrect. 　　In conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to demonstrate that the construction of the mall caused the various problems mentioned. The author would also have to show that the negative effects of the project outweighed the positive effects.