Predicting the timing of China's monetary policy moves can be a daunting task given the central bank does not hold regular policy meetings as its counterparts in the West, and it has a track record of surprising the market.

　　One, albeit slim possibility is that the China may opt to cut banks' reserve requirements or rates as part of a globally coordinated policy action to shore up the world economy, especially if the Federal Reserve launches a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3 after a two-day meeting ending on Thursday to spur the U.S. recovery.

　　China, the euro zone and Britain loosened monetary policy within less than an hour of each other in early July, signaling a growing level of alarm about the world economy. China's move was a surprise, though suggestions of any coordinated action were played down.

　　Unlike its counterparts in the West, the central bank still has plenty of room to cut borrowing costs. The benchmark one-year bank lending rate is at 6 percent while one-year deposit rate is at 3 percent, while the RRR level remains at 20 percent -- among the highest in the world.

　　Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, still expects one or two cuts in RRR and another interest rates cut by year-end.

　　中文翻譯：

　　意外行動(dòng)?

　　預(yù)測(cè)中國何時(shí)調(diào)整貨幣政策,可謂一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù),因中國央行不像西方國家央行那樣定期召開政策會(huì)議,而且過去的行動(dòng)曾屢次讓市場(chǎng)大感意外.

　　一種很小的可能性,就是中國或選擇下調(diào)銀行存款儲(chǔ)備金率或利率,以此作為全球政策協(xié)作支撐世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的部分努力,特別是若美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四結(jié)束兩日會(huì)議時(shí)祭出第三輪量化寬松(QE3)來助推美國復(fù)蘇.

　　7月初,中國、歐元區(qū)和英國的央行短短數(shù)小時(shí)內(nèi)相繼放松貨幣政策,暗示其對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的警戒級(jí)別提高.中國的行動(dòng)令人意外,但聯(lián)合行動(dòng)的意味被淡化.

　　和西方央行不同,中國央行仍擁有下調(diào)借款成本的充�？臻g.中國一年期存貸款利率分別為3%和6%,存款準(zhǔn)備金率維持在20%--為全球者之一.

　　中國國際金融有限公司(CICC)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家彭文生仍預(yù)計(jì),年底前降準(zhǔn)一到兩次,并再降息一次.