While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 El Nino a few months in advance1, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance. That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.

　　Using a computer, the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate El Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature.

　　The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C. Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California. Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it “suggests2 El Nino is indeed predictable.”

　　“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods,” said Weare. He added that the new method “makes it possible to predict El Nino at long lead times3.” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said.

　　The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance4. The 1997 El Nino, for example, caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. The 1877 El Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said.

　　When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report.

　　While predicting smaller El Nino events remains tricky, the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.

　　El Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.

　　The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.

　　詞匯： EI Nino n.厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象 offset / 5C:fset / v.抵消 equatorial / 7ekwE5tC:riEl / adj.赤道的 lead / li:d / adj.的 occurrence / E5kQrEns / n.發(fā)生 monsoon / mCn5su:n / n.季風(fēng) meteorologist / 7mi:tjE5rClEdVist / n.氣象學(xué)家 tricky / 5triki / adj.難以捉摸的注釋：

　　1. … methods had limited success predicting the 1997 EI Nino a few months in advance：predicting the 1997EI Nino a few months in advance是現(xiàn)在分詞短語，進(jìn)一步說明 limited success的含義。

　　2. suggests: suggest在文中的意思是“表明，顯示出”。

　　3. at long lead times: lead的意思相當(dāng)于 in advance。 at long lead times的意思是“在很長的一段時間里”。

　　4. of immense importance = immensely important

　　練習(xí)：

　　1. The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict El Nino a few months in advance. A Right B Wrong C No mentioned

　　2. The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea-surface temperatures. A Right B Wrong C Not mentioned

　　3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past El Nino occurrences.

　　A Right B Wrong C Not mentioned

　　4. Weare’s contribution in predicting El Nino, was highly praised by other meteorologists. A Right B Wrong C Not mentioned

　　5. According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by El Nino in 1991 and 1997 affected 200 million

　　Chinese people.

　　A Right B Wrong C Not mentioned

　　6. It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak.

　　A Right B Wrong C Not mentioned

　　7. A special institute has bee n set up in America to study El Nino.

　　A Right B Wrong C Not mentioned

　　答案與題解 :

　　1. B文章第一段第一句說，哥倫比亞大學(xué)的方法 can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance，而不是幾個月。

　　2. A 本題給出的信息是正確的，根據(jù)是第二段的第一句。

　　3. C 第四段說到其他一些預(yù)測 El Nino的方法也有涉及 sea-surface temperatures這一因素的，但是文章沒有提到是誰首先用 sea-surface temperaturcs測定法預(yù)測 EI Nino的。

　　4. C 文章中提到 Weare的地方是第三段、第四段，但都沒有說到氣象學(xué)家高度評價 Weare在預(yù)測 El Nino方面做出的貢獻(xiàn)。

　　5. B第六段說到，關(guān)于中國受災(zāi)的數(shù)據(jù)是根據(jù)一份 2002年的 United Nations report作出的。

　　6. A 第八段說， El Nino一般開始于 4月與 6月之間，到 12月與 2月之間達(dá)到高峰，從發(fā)生到高峰經(jīng)歷的時間約為 8個月。

　　7. C通篇文章沒有提到美國成立了一個 El Nino研究所。