1.Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a privilege and an honor to participate in the second season of conversations hosted by the prestigious Harvard University Center for the Environment, and to share my thoughts on the subject of the "Future of Energy." Let me begin this afternoon by thanking Harvard University for its kind invitation, and the Center staff for their warm hospitality during my visit to Cambridge.
1、女士們，先生們，大家下午好。能參加由久負(fù)盛名的哈佛大學(xué)環(huán)境中心主辦的第二屆論壇，并與大家分享我對“能源的未來”這一主題的一些看法，是我莫大的榮幸。在我開始今天下午的演講之前，我想先對哈佛大學(xué)表示感謝。感謝哈佛對我的盛情邀約，感謝哈佛大學(xué)環(huán)境中心的工作人員在我訪問坎布里奇美國大學(xué)城時給予我的熱情款待。
2.This affteron, I want to share with you my views on our energy future, to examine some of the most critical factors and trends we need to consider when addressing energy issues.
2、今天下午，我愿與你們一起分享我對能源未來的一些看法，考查我們在處理能源問題時需要考慮的一些至關(guān)重要的影響因素和發(fā)展趨勢。
3.The decisions about energy taken here in the US, back in Saudi Arabia, and indeed across the globe are important, because energy touches every aspect of modern civilization and pervades our daily lives. Access to an economic and reliable supply of energy is essential to achieving greater prosperity and eradicating poverty, to raising living standards in our communities, and to fueling economic and social development at home and abroad. At the same time, we have a responsibility to both our current and future generations when it comes to the protection and preservation of precious natural ecosystems, meaning that decisions about energy, economic expansion and the environment must go hand-in-hand. That is both our challenge, and our opportunity.
3、現(xiàn)如今能源問題涉及現(xiàn)代文明的方方面面，并滲透進我們的日常生活中，因此美國所作的有關(guān)能源的決策，對沙特阿拉伯乃至全球都很重要。得到經(jīng)濟而可靠的能源供應(yīng)，對實現(xiàn)更大程度的繁榮、消除貧困、提高我們社會的生活水平以及推動國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟和社會的發(fā)展，都起到至關(guān)重要的作用。同時，在保護和維護珍貴的自然生態(tài)方面，我們應(yīng)對自己和后代負(fù)責(zé)，這意味著能源決策必須同經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和環(huán)境保護相結(jié)合。這對我們來說既是機遇，又是挑戰(zhàn)。
4.Let me begin with a brief look at today's energy picture, and the factors that those of us in the energy industry grapple with every day, that influence our mental models about energy's future, and provide the basis for our strategies.
4、首先，讓我給大家簡要說說我們目前的能源狀況，以及在能源嚴(yán)業(yè)工作的人們每天都在努力解決的問題，這些問題影響著我們對能源未來的思考模式，也為我們制定未來的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略提供了參考依據(jù)。
5.The world currently consumes around 210 million barrels per day of oil equivalent with most of that supplied by a fairly limited number of sources; a reality that applies equally to the United States. Oil meets nearly 40 percent of the world's total energy needs, coal and natural gas each account for just under a quarter of total demand, hydropower and other altematives for 8 percent, and nuclear energy for 6 percent of total energy supplies. In fact, for all of the attention garnered by renewables and alternative energy sources, fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas still account for a whopping 85 percent of total global energy supplies. In addition, because the number of currently viable energy sources is so limited, we have to recognize that the options that are realistically available to policymakers, producers and consumers are also relatively limited. Of course, the flexibility the world may have in terms of choices is also a function of the time horizon under consideration, and in future there may indeed be more options on the table.
5、目前，世界每天大約消耗相當(dāng)于2.1億桶石油的能源，其中大部分能源都是由相當(dāng)有限的資源來供應(yīng)的，而美國也同樣面對這樣的現(xiàn)實。在世界的總能源需求中，石油只能滿足40%，而煤和天然氣各占不到四分之一，水電和其他的替代能源共占8%，核能源占6%。事實上，盡管可再生能源和替代能源己引起我們的高度關(guān)注，但是礦物燃料，如煤、石油和天然氣，在全球總能源供應(yīng)中的占有率仍高達85%。此外，由于目前可以維持使用的能源如此有限，我們也不得不意識到這一點:真正可供決策者、生產(chǎn)者和消費者選擇的能源也是相對有限的。當(dāng)然，世界在選擇方面所具有的靈活性也需要考慮時間跨度，而且將來我們可能會擁有更多選擇。
6.We must also remember that each sector of energy use has its own source dynamics. For example, when it comes to power generation, there are a number of sources which contribute substantially. According to the US Department of Energy, the American power generation sector draws upon coal for about half of its energy needs, with gas and nuclear each supplying about 19 percent of demand, and hydro electricity accounting for another 7 percent. Oil contributes a modest 3 percent to this country's power generation pie, and the remaining 2 percent of demand is met through renewables other than hydro. In contrast to this relative diversity of sources in the power generation sector, oil currently supplies an overwhelming 97 percent of the transportation sector's energy needs, with the rest coming from compressed gas, bio-fuels and other minor sources.
6、我們也必須記住，每個部門的能源消耗都有它自己的資源動力。以發(fā)電為例，有多種能源可用來大量發(fā)電。據(jù)美國能源部透露，美國電力部門的能源需求中煤大約占了一半，天然氣和核各占約19%，水利電力占7%。石油只占該國電力部門能源需求總量的3%，剩余的2%是通過除水力以外的其他可再生能源來滿足的。與電力部門相對多樣化的能源相反，當(dāng)前交通部門的能源需求有高達97%是靠石油來滿足的，剩下的是來自壓縮天然氣、生物燃料和其他輔助能源。
7.There are distinct reasons why oil is the fuel of choice in the all-important transportation sector: oil technologies have been proven over almost 150 years,and continue to develop; its supplies are abundant; it has an extensive and highly developed infrastructure in every corner of the world encompassing exploration, production, processing, shipping, storage and distribution; it has a very high energy density; and it is readily portable.
7、為何石油成了至關(guān)重要的交通業(yè)的燃料選擇呢?原因顯而易見:石油工業(yè)己經(jīng)有差不多150年的歷史，并持續(xù)發(fā)展;它的供應(yīng)很充足;它廣泛而高度完善的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，包括勘探、生產(chǎn)、加工、運輸、儲存和分配，遍布世界各個角落;它的能源密度高，便于運輸。
8.These factors are important to remember as we look at and endeavor to shape future patterns of energy production and consumption, as well as tackle environmental issues both in this country and around the world.
8、了解這些因素，對我們展望并努力建立未來能源的生產(chǎn)和消費模式，以及解決美國乃至全世界的環(huán)境問題至關(guān)重要。
9.Tuming to the future, we find a variety of scenarios about where energy use is heading. These scenarios are shaped by multiple drivers, ranging from global economic conditions and their impact on energy demand, growth in energy supplies, the state of alternatives and their associated technologies, the comparative economics of different energy sources, and assumptions about environmental policies. 'rhe supply and demand projections which these scenarios produce vary widely-a fact which makes my job considerably more difficult when it comes to business planning and investment decisions! However, the one thing all these estimates agree upon is that the next quarter-century will witness tremendous growth in demand for energy. For example, the Energy Information
Administration of the Department of Energy, predicts that over the next 25 years,global energy use will increase an average of 2 percent annually-meaning that total energy consumption in 2030 will be roughly 70 percent greater than today's level.
9、面向未來，我們制訂出若干應(yīng)對能源利用趨勢的方案。這些方案受多種因素的影響，包括全球經(jīng)濟形勢及其對能源的需求、能源供應(yīng)的增長、替代能源的狀況及其相關(guān)技術(shù)、不同能源的經(jīng)濟比較，以及對環(huán)境政策的預(yù)測。根據(jù)這些方案所做的供求設(shè)計與實際情況大相徑庭以至于要做商業(yè)規(guī)劃和投資決策的時候，這一事實給我的工作帶來了不小的麻煩。然而，在所有這些估計中有一點是一致的，那就是，未來的25年里，我們將見證能源需求的大幅度增長。例如，據(jù)美國能源部下屬的能源情報署預(yù)測，25年以后，全球的能源消耗將以平均每年2%的速度增長—這就意味著到2030年，能源的總消耗量會比現(xiàn)在大約增加70 %。
10.In other words, over the next several decades my industry colleagues and I must substantially increase the amount of energy available to consumers around the world.
10、換句話說，在今后的幾十年里，我和同事們必須在很大程度上增加可供全球消費者使用的能源供應(yīng)量。
11.Can we do it? Yes, without a doubt, as there is more than enough oil remaining to meet the world's needs for many decades to come. Why am I so confident? Because our industry has devoted tremendous efforts and resources to understand the earth's petroleum resource base, and based on these efforts, we know that the world's remaining petroleum resources are vast. Currently proven conventional oil reserves are approximately 1.2 trillion barrels, while recoverable non-conventional reserves-heavy oils and tar sands-are at least 1.5 trillion barrels. Upstream experts believe that with on-going advances in technology, we will find an additional 2 trillion barrels from yet-to-be-discovered fields and tbrough increased recovery rates in existing fields. Added together, we are looking at more than 4.5 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil and that translates into more than 140 years ,of supply at today's current rate of consumption. To put it another way, to date the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional and non-conventional producible potential.
11、我們能做到嗎?是的，毫無疑問，因為地球上還有非常充足的石油儲量，可以滿足世界未來幾十年的需求。為何我如此自信?因為我們已經(jīng)投入了大量的精力和資源，探測地球的石油資源儲備地�；谶@些努力，我們了解到，世界現(xiàn)存的石油儲量是巨大的。目前被證實的常規(guī)石浪儲量約1.2萬億桶，而可回收的非常規(guī)能源儲備—重油和油砂—至少有1.5萬億桶。一些上游企業(yè)的專家們認(rèn)為，隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的不斷進步，我們將會從尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)的能源領(lǐng)域，以及通過提高現(xiàn)有能源回收率的方式，再找到2萬億桶石油。加在一起，我們將看到一個遠大于4.5萬億桶的可開采石油量，按照目前的消耗速度，這可以供我們用140多年。也就是說，迄今為止，全世界消耗的石油量僅是常規(guī)和非常規(guī)石油可生產(chǎn)潛力的18%。
12.While technology holds much promise for enhancing our ability to find,develop and deliver these resources to consumers, I believe it also bas an important role to play when it comes to protecting the planet. We all recognize that mitigating the negative impact that energy production and consumption has on the natural environment is becoming increasingly important, and represents another vital imperative for suppliers, consumers, policymakers, regulators and other stakeholders. Whatever professional role or discipline, or the position we occupy along the energy value chain, each of us has a part to play in lightening energy's environmental footprint, and in making it possible to balance our responsibilities toward the environment with our commitments to the economic prosperity and well-being of our communities and their inhabitants. Achieving that balance is among the most significant challenges facing our planet today, and underscores not only the work of the Harvard University Center for the Environment, but also my remarks this afternoon.
12、隨著科技使我們發(fā)現(xiàn)、開發(fā)這些資源并將其提供給消費者的能力的進一步提高，我認(rèn)為，對于保護地球，科技也同樣扮演著重要角色。我們都承認(rèn)，減輕能源生產(chǎn)和消費對自然環(huán)境產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響正變得日益重要，這也成為供應(yīng)商、消費者、決策者、管理者和其他利益相關(guān)者面臨的又一個當(dāng)務(wù)之急。不論我們的職業(yè)角色或者職業(yè)規(guī)則是什么，也不論我們處在能源價值鏈上的什么位置，我們每個人都應(yīng)發(fā)揮自己的作用，加快能源利用的環(huán)保進程;同時，我們對自然環(huán)境負(fù)有義不容辭的責(zé)任，我們應(yīng)盡量平衡環(huán)境保護與經(jīng)濟繁榮和社會安定之間的關(guān)系。達到這種平衡是我們這個星球現(xiàn)在面臨的挑戰(zhàn)之一，這不僅是哈佛大學(xué)環(huán)境中心的工作核心，也是我今天下午講話的重點。
13.So, where do we go from here? Well when it comes to energy, the immediate future looks a lot like the recent past, with hydrocarbons cont:inuing to account for the lion's share of energy supplies. In fact, fossil fuels will remain the bedrock of energy supplies for both the US and the wider world for many more decades to come, through the use of oil in transportation via significantly improved conventional engines, hybrids or eventually in hydrogen production; and with coal and gas when it comes to electric power generation.
13、那么，我們該怎么辦呢?談到能源問題，我們對將來的預(yù)測就像我們過去對今天的預(yù)測一樣—碳氫化合物將繼續(xù)在能源供應(yīng)中占絕大部分。事實上，化石燃料仍將是美國和大多數(shù)國家今后幾十年中所運用的基本能源，可以通過改良后的傳統(tǒng)發(fā)動機、混合動力機車等燃油交通工具進行利用，還可以和煤、天然氣一起用來發(fā)電。
14.The EIA also projects that renewables, including hydroelectricity, will be generating more energy over the next quarter-century. But even with anticipated technical advancements, that source's share of global energy supplies will only increase by one percent over the next 25 years, from 8 percent of total supplies at present to 9 percent by 2030. When we look at altemative energy, we find that sources such as ethanol are beginning to play a growing role, while hydrogen and fuel cells still have some way to go before they are viable in the market, and face a number of technical and commercial obstacles that need to be resolved.
14、據(jù)美國能源情報署預(yù)計，包括水電在內(nèi)的可再生能源，將在未來25年里產(chǎn)生更多的能源。但是，即使科技進步如我們預(yù)想的那樣，在未來的25年里，可再生能源占全球能源供應(yīng)量的份額也只會增加1個百分點，從目前總供應(yīng)量的8%，增加到2030年的9%。當(dāng)我們關(guān)注替代能源時，我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)，像乙醇這類能源將會發(fā)揮越來越大的作用，而氫和燃料電池這類能源，要進入市場仍有一段很長的路要走，并面臨著一系列尚待解決的技術(shù)上和商業(yè)上的阻礙。
15.But the escalating demand for energy that I outlined earlier means that we will need contributions from all sources, whether traditional hydrocarbons or emerging sources like bio-fuels and hydrogen. As an oil man, I not only welcome additional contributions from altemative fuels, but I believe these contributions will be essential if we are to meet the growing needs of global energy consumers.
15、但是我在前面所列出的能源需求的日益增加，意味著我們將需要利用所有形式的能源，不論是傳統(tǒng)的碳氫化合物能源，還是像生物燃料和氫這樣的新興能源。作為一名石油商，我不僅希望有更多的替代能源出現(xiàn)，我還認(rèn)為，如果我們要滿足全球消費者日益增長的能源需求，這些替代能源將是至關(guān)重要的。
16.However, this is a process that will take time, and because of the complex,multifaceted nature of the obstacles that altematives still face, this is not a transformation that can be rushed. We also have to recognize that the speed of adoption will vary considerably around the world, given each nation or region's relative resource base, economic model, level of energy intensity, degree of technological sophistication, and sunk infrastructure costs. Just as different countries have vastly different levels of things like mobile telephone penetration or automobile ownership, in my judgment various markets around the globe will adopt and adapt alternative fuels at rates, and only slowly begin to converge over time.
16、然而，鑒于替代能源仍面臨著復(fù)雜的、多方面的困難，這個過程將需要一定時間，且這一轉(zhuǎn)變不能一毗而就。此外，我們還必須認(rèn)識到，由于每個國家或地區(qū)的相對資源基礎(chǔ)、經(jīng)濟模式、能源密集程度、科技進步水平、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施費用下調(diào)額度都不一樣，世界各地接受替代能源的速度將會千差萬別。恰如不同國家擁有不同水平的事物—如移動電話普及率或汽車的所有權(quán)一樣。所以根據(jù)我的判斷，世界不同市場接受和適應(yīng)替代燃料的速度將會有顯著的差異，只有時間能使它們步伐一致。
17.Because we face a future in which we will need energy derived from all sources, and since it will take some time for alternative energy to expand its contributions to global supplies, I think we also need to look more closely at the major sources of our energy supplies for years to come. In short, the sources that will make the most important contributions to the energy mix in the near-to medium-term must receive a suitably high priority when it comes to research and the development of technological enhancements. If we ignore the energy supplies that will matter most over the coming decades-and yes, oil is a prime example-we may inadvertently undermine both the environmental and economic goals this nation and the global community have set for themselves.
17、由于未來要求我們從各種資源中尋求能源潛力，且替代能源要想發(fā)展成為全球能源供應(yīng)的支柱，仍需要一段時間，我認(rèn)為，我們需要更加仔細地研究今后幾年主要的能源供應(yīng)源。簡而言之，這些能源供應(yīng)源，將是近期直到本世紀(jì)中期能源結(jié)構(gòu)中最重要的組成部分，在我們對新能源進行研究和技術(shù)改進過程中，它們必定會處于一定的優(yōu)勢地位。如果我們忽視了將在未來幾十年里至關(guān)重要的能源供應(yīng)問題—是的，石油就是一個極好的例子——我們可能會無意中破壞各個國家和國際社會為自己所確定的環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展目標(biāo)。
18.In order to protect the environment, to eliminate energy poverty in the developing world, and to enable men and women around the globe to realize their asprrations for better lives in the future, I believe we must work simultaneously on both altematives and on developing cleaner and more efficient hydrocarbon technologies. Even as we press forward on altematives, let us also direct our efforts toward finding additional reserves of oil and gas, and invest in the production, processing and transportation systems needed to deliver those resources to customers and consumers. In other words, We must recognize that our energy future depends on pursuing a dual track: the gains we make in the altematives laboratory or on the test track as well as advances at the drilling rig, in the refinery and along the automobile production line. In time, renewables and altematives can and will play a more substantial role in meeting the world's energy needs. But for the foreseeable future, our energy prospects hinge largely on the ability of hydrocarbon suppliers to produce more barrels of oil and cubic feet of gas in a reliable and timely manner, on the steps that consumers take to conserve that energy and use it wisely and cleanly, and on the efficiency of the thousands upon thousands of applications and end-uses to which that energy is directed.
18、為了保護環(huán)境，解決發(fā)展中國家的能源匾乏問題，并讓全世界的人們都實現(xiàn)自己對未來更美好生活的殷切愿望，我認(rèn)為，我們必須在尋找替代能源的同時，也為開發(fā)清潔而高效的碳氫化合物技術(shù)而不懈努力。即使在極力尋找替代能源時，我們也要努力尋找更多的石油和天然氣，在它們的生產(chǎn)、加工和運輸體系方面進行大量投資，以便給客戶及消費者提供他們所需要的能源。換言之，我們必須認(rèn)識到，我們的能源前景取決于“兩手抓”:我們既要抓替代能源研究與試驗上的成果，又要注意石油鉆探設(shè)備上的改進;既要抓煉油廠產(chǎn)量，又要注意汽車生產(chǎn)的節(jié)能環(huán)保。隨著時間的推移，可再生能源和替代能源不僅能夠，而且將會在滿足全球能源需求方面發(fā)揮更重要的作用。但在可預(yù)見的將來，我們的能源前景在很大程度上取決于油氣供應(yīng)商以一種可靠而及時的方式，生產(chǎn)出更多的石油和天然氣的能力;取決于消費者采取節(jié)能措施，并且明智而清潔地利用能源;也取決于能源在成千上萬的應(yīng)用與最終用途上產(chǎn)生的效能。
19.Ladies and gentlemen, as I said at the outset, when it comes to energy we face both tremendous challenges and a wide range of opportunities. No company or country, no matter how large or capable, can face those challenges or seize those opportunities by working in isolation. Rather, meeting the world's growing demand for energy while protecting the planet requires a pragmatic approach which integrates both the concems and the contributions of producers, consumers,and all those who impact and influence energy policy.
19、女士們，先生們，正如我在開始時所說的，針對能源問題，我們既面臨巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，也面臨廣泛的機會。任何公司或國家，無論它多么龐大多么強大，都不可能完全獨立地面對挑戰(zhàn)，或抓住機遇。相反，要滿足全球不斷增長的能源需求，并保護地球家園，需要一個務(wù)實的解決方法，這個方法要集中體現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)者、消費者，以及所有與能源政策有關(guān)的人們的利益。
20.Let us therefore press ahead with multifaceted and concurrent efforts to bring various alternatives to the market, work to develop cleaner and more efficient applications for existing hydrocarbon sources, and endeavor to reduce the environmental footprint of global energy use. By aligning our eafforts and building on a firm foundation of resources, reliability and partnership, I believe we can succeed in achieving the sustainable energy future this great country and the wider world deserves.
20、因此，讓我們繼續(xù)進行多方面的共同努力，為市場開發(fā)出不同的替代能源，找到更清潔和更高效的油氣資源利用途徑，努力減少全球能源利用對自然環(huán)境造成的破壞。通過我們協(xié)調(diào)一致的努力，奠定堅實的能源基礎(chǔ)，建立可靠的伙伴關(guān)系，我相信，針對未來的能源利用，我們能夠成功地實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展，這是這個偉大的國家和更廣泛的國際社會應(yīng)該共同追求的目標(biāo)。
