Grocery has so far resisted the rise of online shopping. That may be about to change,THERE is a huge difference between being late and being too late, said Dalton Philips, the boss of Morrisons, on November 21st, as he announced the launch of the British grocer's online-shopping service.Morrisons' competitors have been selling broccoli and baby food via the internet for more than a decade.Britain's fourth-largest grocery chain had shunned e-commerce as a profit-sapping distraction.
雜貨店可能將無(wú)法再抵制住網(wǎng)購(gòu)的盛行,莫里森公司的老總菲利普于11月21日宣布實(shí)行英國(guó)雜貨店商網(wǎng)購(gòu)服務(wù)，并且說(shuō)道：遲了和太遲了之間有著很大差別。莫里森公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手已經(jīng)通過(guò)網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售花椰菜和嬰幼兒食品長(zhǎng)達(dá)十多年了。英國(guó)第四大百貨連鎖店一直將電子商務(wù)視作其利潤(rùn)的瓜分者并加以規(guī)避。
It paid with falling market share and the defection of some of its best customers to Tesco, the country's biggest grocer, and Ocado, an online-only supermarket.Morrisons' change of heart will be noticed beyond Britain.Grocery is the biggest category in retailing but the most resistant to the advance of online shopping.Even in Britain, where it has gone furthest, it may account for just 5% of sales this year.But it is growing fast everywhere.The Boston Consulting Group expects the global market to grow from 36 billion this year to 100 billion by 2018.
而代價(jià)是不僅丟失了市場(chǎng)份額，也失去了它們的客戶。這些客戶轉(zhuǎn)而投向英國(guó)的食品雜貨商樂購(gòu)公司和只做網(wǎng)上超市的Ocado公司。莫里森公司的回心轉(zhuǎn)意將會(huì)引起英國(guó)以及以外的關(guān)注。食品雜貨是零售業(yè)中的一類，但也是最抵制網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物發(fā)展的一類。即使是在英國(guó)，網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物也已經(jīng)發(fā)展很久了�？赡軙�(huì)占到今年總銷售額的5%。這種迅速發(fā)展的網(wǎng)購(gòu)勢(shì)頭隨處可見。波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)截止到2018年，全球的市場(chǎng)將會(huì)從今年的360億美元增長(zhǎng)到1000億美元。
Grocers have held back for good reasons.Like many bricks-and-mortar merchants they fret that online commerce will shrivel sales in stores but not the costs associated with them.Grocery, with its tiny profit margins, adds complications.Virtual shopping-carts contain dozens of low-value items, which must be stored at different temperatures.Retailers can either get in-store staff to pick them off the shelves, which becomes disruptive as volumes rise, or build dedicated warehouses, which is costly. So are home deliveries: even in thickly settled Britain each one costs grocers around 10, but shoppers typically pay little more than 3.
雜貨商放慢腳步是有原因的。很多實(shí)體商鋪的老板擔(dān)心在線商務(wù)會(huì)其他們的銷售額下降，但是卻不會(huì)降低其相應(yīng)的成本。作為收益頗微的食品雜貨更使這一情況變得雪上加霜。虛擬的購(gòu)物車中包含著很多低價(jià)值的物品，這些物品都需要在不同溫度的環(huán)境中儲(chǔ)存。零售商們只能要要店里的員工把它們挑揀下架，然而數(shù)量一多就變得凌亂不堪;或者是花巨資建立專門的倉(cāng)庫(kù)。送貨上門也是這樣：即使是在人口密集的英國(guó)，每個(gè)物品也將花去雜貨商10英鎊，然而購(gòu)物者卻只需要為此支付不到3英鎊的費(fèi)用。
Consumers are also wary.Many want to examine fresh produce before they buy it.They recoil when online grocers deliver substitutions instead of what they ordered.Many shoppers try grocery websites but get discouraged, says David Shukri of the Institute of Grocery Distribution in London.Among pioneers there have been spectacular wipeouts.California's Webvan expanded at breakneck speed, pampered customers with services like home delivery within half-hour slots, lost control of costs and collapsed in 2001.
消費(fèi)者也感到擔(dān)心。他們很多人想要在購(gòu)買之前先檢查生鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。當(dāng)他們收到的物品不是他們訂購(gòu)的而是在線雜貨商發(fā)出的替代品時(shí)，他們會(huì)撤銷訂單。倫敦超市物流研究所的大衛(wèi)說(shuō)道：很多人試圖通過(guò)雜貨商的網(wǎng)站退貨但是‘屢屢受挫'。在眾多先驅(qū)者當(dāng)中，有很多全軍覆沒。其中位于加州的Webvan公司以極快的速度擴(kuò)張業(yè)務(wù)，為消費(fèi)者們提供半小時(shí)送貨上門的服務(wù)，導(dǎo)致其無(wú)法控制成本，最終于2001年倒閉。
Its demise deterred imitators.In Britain Ocado has yet to make much money after more than a decade.Tesco claims its online operation, with nearly half the British market, is profitable.But it uses murky accounting for the cost of stores, where much of the produce is picked, says Andrew Gwynn of Exane BNP Paribas, an investment bank.Yet to shun online is to risk losing grocers' best customers, prosperous families and those with children.
這一教訓(xùn)使很多后來(lái)的模仿者望而卻步。在英國(guó)，Ocado公司在經(jīng)營(yíng)10多年后還沒有多少盈利。樂購(gòu)聲稱其占據(jù)了英國(guó)將近一半市場(chǎng)的網(wǎng)上業(yè)務(wù)是有利可圖的。但是Exane BNP巴黎投資銀行的安德魯?格溫表示，該公司在對(duì)很多提供農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的店面進(jìn)行成本計(jì)算時(shí)采用了模糊化處理。但是回避網(wǎng)絡(luò)意味著將失去很多雜貨店的消費(fèi)人群。
It really is a prisoner's dilemma and you can't afford not to play, says Chris Biggs of BCG.Guess who's delivering dinner?In America, today's Webvans look sturdier.Peapod, the biggest American online grocer, acts as the internet arm of the Giant and Stop & Shop chains; all are part of Ahold, a Dutch giant.It has shown a flair for innovation: Peapod's customers can buy by scanning images of products on delivery lorries and coffee cups with their mobile phones.
比如那些富裕的以及有孩子的家庭。波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)的克里斯?比格斯表示：這真是一個(gè)如困獸般進(jìn)退兩難的地步，你無(wú)法承擔(dān)不參與其中所帶來(lái)的損失。猜猜誰(shuí)在給我們提供晚餐?在美國(guó)，今天的Webvans公司看上去很堅(jiān)實(shí)。美國(guó)的在線雜貨商豆莢公司，充當(dāng)了Stop & Shop連鎖店巨頭在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)中的左膀右臂;而它們都是荷蘭巨頭阿霍德集團(tuán)的一部分。該企業(yè)充分表示了其創(chuàng)新性：豆莢公司的客戶可以用手機(jī)掃描送貨車或是咖啡杯上的商品圖片來(lái)購(gòu)買相應(yīng)產(chǎn)品。
Lazy Manhattanites have been ordering Thanksgiving feasts from FreshDirect, the second-largest online grocer, which is partly owned by Morrisons. Both ventures prosper because they cater to well-off families, largely in cities.American behemoths are unlikely to leave the field to specialists.Amazon began fresh-food deliveries in Seattle in 2007 and in Los Angeles last year.It is expected to add maybe 20 cities in 2014, some abroad.Traditional grocery chains will respond.
慵懶的曼哈頓人已經(jīng)開始通過(guò)FreshDirect公司來(lái)訂購(gòu)感恩節(jié)大餐了。該公司是全美第二大在線雜貨商，莫里森公司擁有其部分股份。由于這些服務(wù)的對(duì)象大多是城市里富裕的家庭，因而這些新興服務(wù)都很成功。美國(guó)的巨頭公司們也不會(huì)袖手旁觀，把機(jī)會(huì)讓給業(yè)內(nèi)行家。2007年，亞馬遜在西雅圖就開始它們的生鮮運(yùn)送業(yè)務(wù)，去年發(fā)展到洛杉磯。它們預(yù)計(jì)到2014年將會(huì)把業(yè)務(wù)拓展到20個(gè)城市，包括海外城市。傳統(tǒng)的食品雜貨連鎖店也會(huì)對(duì)此作出反應(yīng)。
They are determined not to repeat the mistakes other sorts of retailers made at the turn of the century, when they were too afraid of Amazon, says Robert Hetu of Gartner, a technology-research firm.Safeway, the second-largest supermarket chain in North America, is the only one besides Ahold with a substantial online operation.
Walmart, the world's biggest retailer, remains hesitant.Neil Ashe, its head of e-commerce, has questioned whether the chain's budget-minded customers want groceries delivered.
一家技術(shù)研究公司的羅伯特表示: 它們決心不會(huì)重蹈覆轍，重復(fù)其它零售商在世紀(jì)之交時(shí)犯的錯(cuò)誤，它們那時(shí)過(guò)于懼怕亞馬遜。北美地區(qū)第二大連鎖超市Safeway公司是除了阿霍德集團(tuán)外的一家擁有大量網(wǎng)購(gòu)業(yè)務(wù)的公司。全球的零售商沃爾瑪公司仍持觀望態(tài)度。其電子商務(wù)主管阿西亞對(duì)它們那些精明的客戶是否需要食品雜貨運(yùn)送服務(wù)表示質(zhì)疑。
But this may be changing. A pilot project in San Francisco and San Jose is being extended to Denver.Walmart Labs in Silicon Valley has imported many of the people who developed the online-grocery business at Asda, its British subsidiary.On November 25th Walmart said that its new chief executive would be Doug McMillon, who as head of the international operation is responsible for Asda.He may speed Walmart's halting American effort.
但是他可能改變想法。在舊金山和圣何塞的試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目正擴(kuò)展到丹佛。沃爾瑪在硅谷的實(shí)驗(yàn)室先后引進(jìn)許多在其英國(guó)子公司阿斯達(dá)開發(fā)網(wǎng)上雜貨業(yè)務(wù)的人。沃爾瑪于11月25日表示將任命阿斯達(dá)國(guó)際化經(jīng)營(yíng)的負(fù)責(zé)人麥克米倫為其首席執(zhí)行官。他可能會(huì)加速沃爾瑪網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)的進(jìn)程。
If a big American retailer plunges in, others will take it seriously and the market will expand rapidly, says Mr Biggs.With luck, the newcomers will avoid the mistakes of earlier stumblers.Where internet grocery is still immature, supermarkets can encourage shoppers to click and collect from stores rather than spoil them with home delivery.A likelier model for sprawling, car-crazy America is France, where shoppers pick up groceries from drive-through supermarktes.
比格斯先生，如果一家美國(guó)零售巨頭進(jìn)來(lái)分一杯羹的時(shí)候，其它企業(yè)就都認(rèn)真起來(lái)了，市場(chǎng)將很快被拓展。如果運(yùn)氣好的話，這些新來(lái)的可以避免早期失足者的錯(cuò)誤。網(wǎng)上超市還很不成熟，超市可以鼓勵(lì)顧客從商店點(diǎn)擊領(lǐng)取，而不是送貨上門的方式。對(duì)于一個(gè)汽車泛濫的美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，法國(guó)的做法可能是美國(guó)模仿的對(duì)象。
As volumes rise, picking will shift to shopperless dark stores and to automated, super-efficient fulfilment centres like Ocado's.BCG reckons that shoppers who become online converts spend 30% more.Another boon is that distribution centres on cheap land consume less capital than urban stores.Online grocers can thus earn a decent return on capital even with thin operating margins, Mr Gwynn says.He expects Ocado, which will share its second fulfilment centre with Morrisons, to achieve its first proper profit next year.
在那里購(gòu)物都是從免下車超市自行選取商品。隨著業(yè)務(wù)量的上升，選購(gòu)的方式可能慢慢演化成看不見人流的隱形商店，并逐漸變成類似于Ocado的高效、自動(dòng)化物流中心。波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)估計(jì)，成為網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物者將多消費(fèi)30%以上。另一福音是在廉價(jià)地區(qū)的分配中心的花銷比市區(qū)門店的少。因此，溫格說(shuō)，網(wǎng)上雜貨店可以賺取可觀的回報(bào)即使利潤(rùn)微薄。他預(yù)計(jì)Ocado公司，這將與莫里森公司共享其第二物流中心，于明年實(shí)第一次實(shí)現(xiàn)適當(dāng)?shù)睦麧?rùn)。
But as more consumers do their bulk buying online, and grocers start shutting their bigger urban stores, there will be a lot of large retail properties looking for new tenants.Morrisons does not have the luxury of starting slowly.It hopes to make up for its late start by entrancing shoppers.It will post frank ratings of its produce to build trust, a trick learnt from FreshDirect.If a customer doesn't like the look of the fresh food delivered to her door, she can send it back and claim a voucher.
但隨著網(wǎng)購(gòu)消費(fèi)者的增多做，雜貨店開始關(guān)閉其更大的市區(qū)門店，這樣以來(lái)就會(huì)有很多的大型零售物業(yè)尋找新的租戶。莫里森承受不起慢慢來(lái)的巨大代價(jià)。它希望讓客戶沉迷于其開展的業(yè)務(wù)以彌補(bǔ)起步較晚的劣勢(shì)。它們將發(fā)布產(chǎn)品的信用評(píng)級(jí)制度，這是從FreshDirect學(xué)到的。如果客戶對(duì)送到她們門口的新鮮食品不滿意，她們可以要求退貨并索要發(fā)票。
Isn't this the sort of coddling that wrecked Webvan?No, says Mr Philips, for three reasons: Morrisons will exploit its buying power, its emphasis on fresh food brings relatively high margins and it will piggyback on Ocado's operations.The latecomer will beguile shoppers.It may be harder to charm shareholders.
這會(huì)不會(huì)像Webvan公司那樣過(guò)分縱容消費(fèi)者呢?不會(huì)，飛利浦先生認(rèn)為有三個(gè)原因：莫里森將利用其購(gòu)買力，為購(gòu)買新鮮食物帶來(lái)相對(duì)較高的利潤(rùn)率，同時(shí)也會(huì)捎帶開展Ocado的業(yè)務(wù)。后來(lái)者會(huì)欺騙消費(fèi)者，也將更難討好股東們。
